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Changes to the Site for 2021

Tue, 16 Mar 2021 05:28:26 GMT

As We Move Into the New Season - We Have Some New Features!

As we move along in the Cod Season, we have added tons of new features to the site that can hopefully provide an immense amount of value to both casual and hardcore fans of the Call of Duty league.

Advanced Team SND Dashboard

The advanced SND Dashboard highlights allows you to take a look at how teams as a whole across the league or individually perform on specific maps and what strategic tendencies they tend to utilize. You can filter by specific events, teams and maps.

SND Advanced Dashboard

Advanced Hardpoint Dashboard

The hardpoint dashboard allows you to see the Net +/-, Hold %, Break %, Rotation Win % and Chain % for every team on every specific hill in competitive Cod. Look at how specific teams perform individually or leaguewide for specific maps.

Hardpoint Advanced Dashboard

Changes to the Leaderboards

The leaderboards now feature multiple new statistics. They are also completely sortable. If you want to filter players by a specific weapon used (SMG or AR), you are able to. You can also filter stats on individual maps and look at specific events or majors throughout the year. In SND you will find First Blood stats for players and teams, in the team SND Stats leaderboard you will find 3v4 and 4v3 win percentages in SND, as well as sortable offense/defense stats.

Player Leaderboards
Team Leaderboards

Challenger Stats

This year we also have stats from the Cod Challenger League. While not every match is tracked (only games streamed), with multiple events throughout the year (Challenger Tournaments, Elite Series, Scouting Grounds) we are able to build a very solid sample size of data for players.

SND Challenger Stats

Hardpoint Challenger Stats

Control Challenger Stats

Looking at the Best Flex Players Statistically in Modern Warfare

Tue, 13 Oct 2020 05:17:36 GMT

Leaderboard for Flex Players That Use Both AR and SMG

In the previous two posts. I looked at SMG and AR stats separated. Today we are looking at strictly Flex players from the 2020 MW Season. The graph below illustrates all Flex players who played a minimum of 10 maps with an AR and a Sub (HP+Dom Only).

Flex players who are above the solid black line were theoretically better when using an SMG, players below the line were better with an AR.
The dotted red line indicates the league average. Before that line = below league average; after = above league average flex.
Looking at specific standouts, Fero had almost identical SMG and AR statistics. Based on this, (for MW at least) it was a mistake to have him use an AR on certain maps with how dominate he was with an SMG in his hands.
Interesting to note Prestinni was massively better when using an AR, this is likely due to the aggressive entry role he was playing with a Sub though. So for those who doubt his ability, yes he is extremely talented.
GodRx is one of the slower flex players in the league, but it would be insane with his ability using both weapons (and sniper in SND) to not get a roster spot next season given the other names he is next to on this graph.

AR Only Statistical Breakdown in MW

Tue, 13 Oct 2020 05:14:46 GMT

Player Performance with AR's in Call of Duty: Modern Warfare (2020)

Here is every players statistics when strictly using an AR this season. The stats used are Damage Per Death, K/D ratio and engagements per 10 minutes.

The first leaderboard is a players raw K/D ratio and Damage Per Death when using an AR. The next table is an adjusted leaderboard. Very similar to the first but this adjusts every player on a game by game basis for the map and opponent they are playing. Creating a more accurate version of a players true skill.

Finally, the two images at the bottom are comparison charts for the top 20 AR leaders. Comparing their Actual KD vs Adjusted, as well as comparing their damage per death to K/D Ratio.

Actual AR Leaderboard:

HP+Dom Combined; weighted by % each game mode is played. (Min 10 Times Used)
Excluding opening weekend and only counting games in which the scoreboard was shown after

Adjusted AR Only Leaderboard:

This adjusts every player on a game-by-game basis to the opponent and map they play on.
Excluding opening weekend and only counting games in which the scoreboard was shown after

Top 25 Adjusted KD v. Actual KD

A player above the solid line implies that he should have performed better this season than they actually did. They played less favorable maps and opponents when using an AR.

Top 25 Damage Per Death v. K/D Ratio

Top 20 players this season when using an AR. Farthest to the top right indicates the best performers this season.

SMG Only Statistical Breakdown in MW

Tue, 13 Oct 2020 05:08:51 GMT

Breaking Down Every Players Stats When Using an SMG for COD: Modern Warfare

In this post we will be breaking down every players statistics when strictly using an SMG this season. The stats used are Damage Per Death, K/D ratio and engagements per 10 minutes.

The first leaderboard is a players raw K/D ratio and Damage Per Death when using an SMG. The next table is an adjusted leaderboard. Very similar to the first but this adjusts every player on a game by game basis for the map and opponent they are playing. Creating a more accurate version of a players true skill.

Finally, the two images at the bottom are comparison charts for the top 20 SMG leaders. Comparing their Actual KD vs Adjused, as well as comparing their damage per death to K/D Ratio.

SMG Leaderboard:

HP+Dom Combined; weighted by % each game mode is played. (Min 10 Times Used)

Adjusted SMG Only Leaderboard:

This adjusts every player on a game by game basis to the opponent and map they play on.

Top 20 Adjusted KD v. Actual KD

A player above the solid line implies that he should have performed better this season than they actually did. They played less favorable maps and opponents when using an SMG.

Top 20 Damage Per Death v. K/D Ratio

Top 20 players this season when using an SMG. Farthest to the top right indicates the best performers this season.

Complete Analytical Breakdown of Gun Runner SND

Thu, 13 Aug 2020 05:00:59 GMT

An Analysis of SND Play on Gun Runner

This is going to be a five part series breaking down every Search and Destroy map and the ways in which teams can be more effective on offense heading into Cod Champs. It will also be analyzing the VOD of some of the most effective offensive strategies/setups.

Gun Runner is one of the few maps where it is extremely balanced across the board in terms of which strategies are successful. It is also #2 in overall offensive win % behind Piccadilly (53.66%). When looking at total rounds it is clear that slow B setups are the most preferred strategy of all teams, but the numbers actually favor it the least (behind slow A which has only happened twice out of 216 rounds so am discarding).

One thing that really stands out to me is that Neutral setups on the map do so well in terms of K/D at 1.11, but actually perform worse than the average winrate of 53.24%. This is likely due to teams being more spread out on a map where trades are so crucial. The rounds they do win with neutral setups tend to not be close.

Looking at specific team success on Gun Runner, London does an incredible job of utilizing effective strategies most often and they are able to translate that into the 3rd highest win %. Meanwhile, the Huntsmen are by far playing the least optimal on Gun Runner, yet still winning their offensive rounds at a 60% frequency. Surprisingly, Optic leads in offensive round win % despite playing a fairly sub-optimal strategy.

Fast B:

There are numerous ways you can choose to attack the B site quickly. This round specifically from Atlanta Faze really stands out to me as a great way to approach it. #8 (Simp) and #0 (aBezy) both hard hit B and play eachothers trades. Majormaniak (#6) and Cellium (#7) are able to play forest with AR's and look over both of them. Meanwhile, Priestahh (#9) is playing for information and watching the flank at B Dom and mid-cut. This is a great position to be in to catch or hear any players rotating back to the B bombsite once Dallas gets word that it is a fast B push. Eventually Priestahh is able to push through trains to set up a pinch and give Faze the round victory.

In this example, Optic utilizes the same concept of sending two players straight at B but this time give up Forest for more midmap control. By doing this they allow Kuavo (#1) to push through green and help out Drazah (#5) and Hollow (#4) with any trades. What may go unnoticed is also #3 (Slasher) getting the angle from P3 onto crates where he is able to get information to help open up the B site. In this specific instance he is able to get the first blood as well which is massive. After which he is now able to check for any full flank pushes through B dom and then push up and take boiler control.

Fast A:

Just like Fast B pushes, there are only so many unique ways you can really attack the A site quickly. The most popular setup by far is to 4 hit through B dom and have a 2/2 split with 2 going through lockers and 2 going through midcut. There is almost always one player near the spawn or A Dom watching any type of flank as well. You can vary this setup slightly by sending one player through boiler into office or only sending one through lockers. One of my favorite Gun Runner SND maps on the year came from the Dallas-Florida semi-finals ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KZVv0Dm9xnY&t=3258s ). In the game 2 SND Dallas fearlessly goes fast A three straight offensive rounds (2-4-6) and wins all three.

Neutral Setup:

Neutral setups and midmap stacks are becoming more and more popular on Gunrunner and for good reason. Getting midmap control has always been a staple in SND. On Gun Runner specifically, the rotation to either A or B is just a few seconds from boiler. This allows you to play for trades and information while still keeping both bombsite options open.

Paris has been a team that has utilized this setup frequently with their newfound SND success. In their recent upset SND win over Dallas they used this same exact setup in rounds 1 and 3. My favorite part of this is how great their rotation to B is. After a few back and forth trades Paris holds a 4-3 numbers advantage before shifting towards B. Notice they don't immediately go for any individual plays on the site though until #1 (Louqa) spots a Dallas player still at the A site. Paris now immediately knows they have a minimum 3-2 numbers advantage at the B site once the bomb carrier gets there. #3 (Shockz) holds front bathroom while #2 (Kismet) holds the rotation through crates to B and they are able to get the bomb planted.

Besides stacking boiler, here are a couple more neutral setups that really work well on Gun Runner:

These types of setups work extremely well versus teams who have a tendency of being too aggressive on defense. Holding angles/cut points allows you to get easy picks and then decide how to proceed from there. In both of the above examples the offense wins the round with only one death.

Slow B:

Although Slow B setups tend to be overused by teams on Gun Runner, there are quite a few teams who do a good job of utilizing it effectively. Being successful with a slow B setup usually means getting into aggressive positions early on and then holding those angles. LA does a fantastic job of that here.

Utilizing a smoke, Vivid (#9) is able to get onto top bathroom. From there LA is setup so that they can just hold all of these spots until Chicago makes a mistake. There is really zero players that can die without getting traded out besides (#7) Aqua who is watching full flanks at P3 from the heady. When you're utilizing any type of slow/controlled setup, this is exactly how you want to do it.

Creative Setup:

When playing a team that likes to be very site heavy on defense, I really like this approach from Optic here. They split 3/2 A/B with the bomb carrier being on the A and 2 side. The goal for Optic here is if Seattle goes heavy onto B to just fast hit B with 3 players and have them trade/create enough madness to allow the bomb to get planted easily at A. In this specific case Seattle actually sends 4 players towards A. Even though they take the early 4-3 advantage they have no idea that Optic has 3 players hitting the B side fast. This gives Optic a 3-2 numbers advantage back crates. They win both of those gunfights and now just have to worry about the last two players they know will be rotating from A.

Setting Up for Future Rounds:

One of my favorite approaches when playing offense on SND is intentionally setting up future rounds. In this first example Simp (#8) is able to get the sniper pick from P3, meanwhile aBezy (#0) flys straight through boiler into office and gets two kills. They end up winning this round easily.

On the very next offense, Seattle now knows that they have to worry about aBezy going into office, as well as the Sniper angle from P3. Knowing this, Atlanta completely ignores boiler as Seattle sends two resources there. Seattle also doesn't try to get any B control due to the concern of Simps sniper from the previous round. Simp and aBezy instead fast hit B with their numbers advantage and win the round easily.

Defense Special:

Because Defense is actually more difficult to win on Gun Runner I wanted to include a few setups I especially enjoy on Gun Runner. What makes Defense so difficult on Gun Runner is the fact that if the bomb is planted at A the site is just so hard to retake. But if you commit resources to stopping the bomb plant at A then you are extremely vulnerable at the B site where teams tend to favor a majority of their offensive pushes. Teams doing their research to figure out their opponents tendencies and hard-countering them are going to have the most success on Gun Runner defense.

In my opinion the most critical aspect of defense on Gun Runner is fighting for mid-map/boiler control and being aggressive. Teams that play passive on Defense on this map often struggle as it is just so hard to regain control on the map once you lose it. You need to be aggressively setting up mid-map so that you can counter any type of B setup. Here Dallas does a great job of that. (#1) is holding boiler and (#5) is holding bathroom. Both of these positions allow (#4) to freely be aggressive as he pushes up to halfwall. If Atlanta is to fast hit A, both #1 and #4 can pinch due to boiler control with (#3) slowing it down from top AC.

For more analytical/theoretical content: Follow me on twitter @KarsenCLS

VOD Review: Taking an in Depth Look at Arklov Peak SND

Wed, 08 Jul 2020 04:46:03 GMT

An In-Depth Look into Arklov Peak as an SND Map

This article is part 1 of 5: each article is going to take an in depth look at every Search and Destroy map in Call of Duty Modern Warfare. In part one we will be looking at Arklov Peak. The entire goal of this series is to really go in depth with what the numbers are telling us about certain Search and Destroy maps.

From an analytical perspective, we need to break down offensive/defensive strategy on a round by round basis. Once we find the baseline offensive win percentage for every map individually. We can then begin to take a deep dive into specific strategies that are succeeding above that percentage threshold.

For example, if on random map #1 the offensive win-rate is 40%, it is not a failure to succeed on a specific offensive setup on that map only 41% of the time. That would be plus EV and a success, although a small success. In my opinion, too many teams are playing to be perfect, thus leading to mistakes and suboptimal strategies in game. That should not be the goal. The goal should be to find out what strategies are working most efficiently, and design an overall game plan around maximizing the use of that strategy without becoming too predictable.

Arklov Peak has the second lowest offensive win % at 43.42%. Although it can be tough to succeed on offense, it is one of my favorite SND maps to watch. There are lots of creative routes teams can take, and essentially five lanes to watch at all times. Looking into specific setups, we see that A focused offensive rounds are succeeding about 13% more often than B focused rounds. Neutral setups tend to be a bit more polarizing. Although they win at a 50% rate, they have a K/D of .92.

Looking at the data; every setup besides Fast B pushes should be utilized in an overall game plan. Although slow B pushes are slightly sub-optimal at 40%; they should be mixed in at a low frequency for balance purposes. Lets take a look at some specific strategies that really stand out to me.

Fast A:

This is a strategy that we see New York use frequently with high success. Because of the positions that Mack (#1), Temp (#2), and Attach (#3) are set up in early. ZooMaa is able to get aggressive through trench (#5). The goal is to get first blood, but even if he doesn't it will be very hard for one of those three to not at least trade the kill with the setup they are in.

In this situation he does get the first blood which forces Havok (#0) and Skyz (#7) to immediately turn around, leading to the rest of New York pushing up and killing both with their back turned, taking site control and eventually closing out the round with only one death.

Although we know aggressive A setups work well on this map, this particular setup from New York really stands out to me. It's a very controlled yet aggressive push. Having an entry player as good as ZooMaa certainly helps.

Neutral Setup:

We see neutral setups on Arklov with the second highest offensive win rate at 50%. Toronto and Florida really stand out to me as two teams who really utilize neutral setups on Arklov at a high frequency, with lots of success.

In this example, Toronto utilizes a neutral setup to perfection vs Atlanta. They initially setup in a way so that all five lanes on the map are accounted for. I specifically like this vs an Atlanta team that likes to get very aggressive at times.

Although the setup is good, the execution is even better. Watch what happens immediately after Methodz (#3) finds first blood.

After Methodz gets first blood, Mettalz (#2) spots Cellium back rock (#7). Without hesitation, they immediately rotate to A. They already have a 5v4 advantage due to first blood, but knowing that Cellium is back rock, by going directly to A they now for sure have a minimum a 5v3 situation on the A side of the map.

After the rotation, Toronto now has Mettalz watch the full flank all the way in the back while the rest of his teammates fight for hill control. They win the gunfights needed and now Atlanta has their last two members away from the A site having to rotate. They use the same strategy in round 10 to close out the map; winning with 5 kills and 2 deaths for a total of 10-4 using the strategy.

Minnesota Gaming Creative

When you think of Search and Destroy, what makes it so great as a game mode is the mindgames and the levels of strategy based on those mindgames that go into it. This series of three straight offensive rounds from Minnesota on Arklov does a great job of highlighting that. Minnesota does a great job of getting creative on a map where it can be tough for offensive teams to succeed.

In round one Minnesota fakes an aggressive B push with three players pushing up quickly to the site using smokes, grenades and flashes. While this is happening watch the bottom right corner on the minimap. The bomb carrier and #3 (GodRx) are there to take site control as the rest of Seattle rotates to help at B. Even though they are down 5-3, having A site control with GodRx looking down the sniper scope is almost impossible to overcome and Minnesota wins round one.

In round two they use a very common A setup, Godrx sniping down trench while two players push up with a mid-map smoke and get the bomb down at A. While there is nothing special in this offensive setup, the beauty of this round is what they do on their very next offense.

This time Minnesota uses the same exact smoke grenade front broken they used in the previous round, but instead of going A send three players through the smoke to B where they now have a numbers advantage at the B site and eventually win the round.

Slow B Setup:

When it comes to B setups on Arklov, although it is a tough bombsite to succeed at, certain teams have done a great job of it. Atlanta is one team that does a good job of really slowing down on their B setups to find information, play for picks and then determine from there what to do next. We know that a fast B strategy on Arklov is very sub-optimal, so if you are playing the B bombsite this is the way to go about it.

In both of these clips, Atlanta methodically attacks the B site. They use this strategy to win two massive offensive rounds vs New York (round 8 down 3-4) round 10 (up 5-4). They combine for 10 kills and only 3 deaths. In both rounds, they keep the bomb carrier in the back watching the flank so if needed they can rotate. While this is happening they have Priestahh (#9) getting aggressive looking for first blood while the rest of the team is playing over him mid-map getting information and looking for picks themselves.

Why K/D Ratio is Deeply Flawed, and How We Can Make it Better.

Sun, 03 May 2020 04:29:10 GMT

What K/D Tells Us, and How We Can Better Measure It

In any sport, there are going to be flawed statistics that come to light as popular and easy ways of identifying who is skilled. In Baseball you might look at a pitchers win-loss record, or in Basketball you may check a players points per game. While basic stats can be great for casual fans to easily identify who is doing well, the truth is these types of stats are deeply flawed.

In Call of Duty, for years a players KD Ratio is how we have determined who the best players are. It's not hard to figure out why it is popular. Does a player kill more players than he dies? That is what K/D ratio answers. On the surface level it seems like it would be a very productive stat, but in terms of proving who is a better Call of Duty player, it does not paint an accurate picture.

So why is KD Ratio flawed? Simply, there are an endless amount of different variables that go into how well a player performs when it comes to kills and deaths. Is the player running an AR or a Sub? Is the player on a winning team or a losing team? Is the players engagements low or high? Is the player always rotating for spawns, the first to break a hill? Is the player always soaking up hill-time?

The best skilled player in the game could be running a sub, always pushing for new spawns, playing on a losing team and even though he may be the most skilled. His KD ratio is never going to come close to someone who may be running an AR, playing on a winning team, and engaging at a low frequency around the map.

So how can we make K/D ratio more accurately reflect who the best slayers are in the game, while still keeping the simplicity that makes it such a popular and great stat?

When looking at the issue of figuring out a better way to evaluate a players kills and deaths. We have to take all the data that is available. For myself, it is tracking what gun every player is using, hill-time, engagements, and team success. For now, this is the data and variables we have to work with, and the most I can track on my own. As we get deeper, and we hopefully get access to more data (For example: Engagements on rotation) we can make this stat more and more accurate.

The first step when working with the baseline data is to make it better. All the numbers I work with in my advanced stats are first adjusted to the map that is being played (certain maps average more engagements, etc. than others --- more to come on this in a later article), as well as opponent (obviously not all opponents are equal). Finally the numbers are broken down on a per minute basis (not all Hardpoint game type's are the same length).

With this data, we can now take a players gun they use, engagements per minute, hill-time (hardpoint), and the net win/loss of their team and run a linear regression to find a players projected Kills Per Minute and an expected Deaths Per Minute. We can then average out the results to get every players projected K/D vs a league average opponent on a neutral map for the entire season.

Now that we have a more accurate idea of what every players K/D SHOULD be for the role they are playing, we can then look at what they have ACTUALLY produced on the season in terms of Kills per Minute and Deaths per Minute. (Adjusted for map and opponent).

By using this formula: (Adjusted Actual KD - Adjusted Projected KD) + 1. We get a more true reflection of who the best players are when it comes to slaying. Example: Player A has a 1.04 projected KD and a 1.12 Actual KD. We take (1.12-1.04) + 1 to get an adjusted KD ratio of 1.08.

While this is not an end-all be-all stat, it allows us to lo ok at and reflect on a players slaying power in a more accurate way. Obviously, this is still going to reflect poor on players who are always doing the dirty work. Ex: always in tough engagements, first to a hill, pushing for spawns, etc. But as more data becomes available/tracked, the stat can improve and become better.

cc995390

Changes to the Site for 2021

As We Move Into the New Season - We Have Some New Features!

Advanced Team SND Dashboard

Advanced Hardpoint Dashboard

Changes to the Leaderboards

Challenger Stats

Looking at the Best Flex Players Statistically in Modern Warfare

Leaderboard for Flex Players That Use Both AR and SMG

AR Only Statistical Breakdown in MW

Player Performance with AR's in Call of Duty: Modern Warfare (2020)

Actual AR Leaderboard:

Adjusted AR Only Leaderboard:

Top 25 Adjusted KD v. Actual KD

Top 25 Damage Per Death v. K/D Ratio

SMG Only Statistical Breakdown in MW

Breaking Down Every Players Stats When Using an SMG for COD: Modern Warfare

SMG Leaderboard: ﻿

Adjusted SMG Only Leaderboard:

Top 20 Adjusted KD v. Actual KD

Top 20 Damage Per Death v. K/D Ratio

Complete Analytical Breakdown of Gun Runner SND

An Analysis of SND Play on Gun Runner

﻿ Fast B:

Fast A:

Neutral Setup:

Slow B:

Creative Setup:

Setting Up for Future Rounds:

﻿

Defense Special:

VOD Review: Taking an in Depth Look at Arklov Peak SND

An In-Depth Look into Arklov Peak as an SND Map

Fast A:

Neutral Setup:

Minnesota Gaming Creative

Slow B Setup:

Why K/D Ratio is Deeply Flawed, and How We Can Make it Better.

What K/D Tells Us, and How We Can Better Measure It

SMG Leaderboard:

Fast B: